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Online usersPollWhat should the government do about ailing financial institutions? Nothing, except to back off and get out—as any Objectivist knows, intervention is treating the disease with the disease 85% Intervene judiciously—enough to avert a catastrophe that is otherwise imminent 3% Intervene massively—as it's doing 2% Nationalize the whole economy and be done with it. Bring on the USSA! 2% Something else (specify) 8% Total votes: 59
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Another Great Depression...ummmm...so what?Submitted by Elijah on Mon, 2008-06-30 07:34.
There has been a great deal of talk recently about a coming 'depression' as a result of the credit crunch, high commodity prices, high consumer debt and a great deal of speculative behaviour on financial and real estate markets.
My response is a resounding...."so what?" Periodically throughout history these sorts of things occur, it only lasts a reasonably short time and...to perhaps put it flippantly, 'it all comes out in the wash'. For most people life will continue as normal, perhaps with a spot of unemployment or bankruptcy for many, and, gosh, these things happen; and only the unskilled working class will be actually walloped by a depression (and they view the future negatively anyway, so will hardly be surprised). The best part about a depression will be a wakeup call for the 'presumptious' elements in the World and a burning of fingers is a splendid way to remind some people that some doors are marked 'No Entry' ..and yes, that means you ;) For those worried about a coming depression the best thing to do...(and I have been saying this for some months)...is to move out of 'assets' and into 'cash'; and therefore every chap should sell everything which is not nailed down and pop the money in the bank or (preferably) your safe deposit box. Yes, yes, I understand you just thought about those mortgaged rental properties or shares or bonds and think it does not apply to you...but I say again, sell every asset and move into cash (I am unsure how to explain that more clearly, and do not say you have not been warned if everything does go tits up) because 'cash is king' during economic depressions. People who have 'cash' will ride out the storm best. These chaps will be able to more or less name their price for consumer goods, various 'services', holidays, motorised vehicles, pay rates for employees and a myriad of other purchases; and this is hardly a bad thing and should enable such chaps to find the depression a comfortable walk in the park. With any luck a depression will put an end to the irresponsible policies of Governments around the World; the budget deficits, expansion of M3 money supply, welfare payments, subsidies and all the other madness these chaps seem to engage in. Hopefully massive spending cuts will result...temporarily making the depression even worse (and remember, this is actually a positive thing)..but in the long run will lead to a fundamental change in the role of government and its limitations. There are a few things to keep in mind about depressions; all rather tiresome but they are bound to happen again...expect a dramatic increase in the number of door to door salesmen annoying you; expect a lot of talk about how it is all the fault of 'the Rich' (oh yes, rampaging hoardes of rich people kidnapped you, drugged you and forced you to take out that loan or house mortgage you dishonourably did not pay therefore ending up in your current predicament); expect Governments to (at least initially) to undertake various measures to hold back to tide (hence my advice to keep the cash in a safe deposit box); vast numbers of ignorant poor people will be even poorer and there will be resulting handwringing and collectivist talk about the need to help them (yeah, right); everyone will ignore their own behaviour during the last five years or so and instead claim everything is [your] fault.
As I say, all rather a bore and such things are best either ignored or sneered at....but the most important thing about a depression is to remember it only lasts a couple of years and all comes out in the wash.
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Is Stossel...
... among my readers?
The thought is rather obvious to any rational and informed person right now, so it's probably just a matter of "great minds"...
"Oh I am the last person to
"Oh I am the last person to blame speculators...(being one myself)...I was meaning 'speculative' behaviour which is foolish."
I think that the point Mr. Valliant is trying to make is that government interference in the economy is the cause of what is in hindight foolish speculative behavior.
Most people assume that investing is a game where you don't want to be the "last person holding the bag". This is true in an environment where the government consistently inflates the money supply and manipulates interest rates. In this environment gaging the future prospects for any kind of business venture becomes very difficult. And at the end of the cycle you have a bunch of reasonably smart people who all turned out to be wrong at the *same time* and then the bubble bursts.
This pattern of so many people being wrong at the same time at the end of these cycles is not a result of the free market. It occurs because the government has manipulated the system so much that it is difficult to get a handle on the right value of assets. So the market goes through unpredictable large corrections instead of consistent and relatively predicable small ones. It will be interesting to see this phenominon play out among buyers of oil futures contracts.
- Jason
Oh I am the last person to
Oh I am the last person to blame speculators...(being one myself)...I was meaning 'speculative' behaviour which is foolish.
For instance, purchasing an apartment with little deposit and where the rent does not cover the interest, insurance, body corporate fees and rates; and where the investor is seeking to take advantage of that absurdity of 'negative gearing' for its tax benefits.
Invariably the chickens come home to roost...(I gather, as a glaring example, that virtually the entire Zest apartment complex on Nelson street in Auckland is technically bankrupt with half the apartments on the market at the moment and the other half heading towards mortgagee sales)...because no one should enter into a real estate transaction unless the cashflows are positive.
http://nzcapitalist.blogspot.com/
Not Speculators
No, BLESS the "speculators"!
In such times, venerable tradition blames speculators, "predatory" lenders... gypsies and, of course, the Jews.
Around the corner: the Illuminati, the Trilateral Commission and the Priory of Sion!
Yes, James it is sad the
Yes, James it is sad the obvious cause of a Depression is government meddling, but that is always the only 'cause' never identified by all the handwringing.
Were a Depression to occur soon....(and I do not think it will)...it is Government policies which are most to blame, together with irresponsible speculative actions on financial and real estate markets.
http://nzcapitalist.blogspot.com
Depressions are Bad
Depressions are not inevitable facts of nature, but the result of government intervention in the economy.
While it is also true that the market -- left to its own devices -- will operate to keep it short -- a depression can become a "Great" one -- lasting more than a "couple of years" -- when it is properly nurtured with a "New Deal."