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PollWhat should the government do about ailing financial institutions? Nothing, except to back off and get out—as any Objectivist knows, intervention is treating the disease with the disease 83% Intervene judiciously—enough to avert a catastrophe that is otherwise imminent 3% Intervene massively—as it's doing 3% Nationalize the whole economy and be done with it. Bring on the USSA! 1% Something else (specify) 11% Total votes: 80
 Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell
 Economics In One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt
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Obama McCain in Dead Heat at Online Prediction Markets Submitted by gregster on Mon, 2008-09-15 22:15.
The liberal press, with its own 'left-leaning' bias, usually tries to dress things up for the Democrat nominees. To test whether there is some accuracy to their published and upcoming polls, and particular bent, we could look to where money talks and bullshit walks. I think it's interesting that, apparently, many online bookmakers are detecting a move for McCain. Although I've seen plenty of dead-certs beaten, (witness the Rugby league on Sunday, Melbourne at $1.14 beaten by Warriors paying $5.50), betting moves could be a guide to the direction of voting. I'll be keeping track of it here. As an example, from the humorously named Gambling 911; http://www.gambling911.com/politics/obama-mccain-dead-heat-online-predic... Bookmaker.com, an online gambling website owned by the oldest established North American facing offshore betting firm, BetCRIS, has shifted odds on Republican Presidential candidate John McCain to -115. The move makes McCain a favorite for the very first time since both men were nominated for their respective parties. Senator Barack Obama was also listed with -115 odds at Bookmaker.com. That company - which owns a nine story state of the art complex in San Jose, Costa Rica - anticipates more than a million dollars bet on Election Day alone. Another online prediction market, intrade.com, based out of Dublin, Ireland, has McCain listed with a 51.6 percent chance of winning the Election verses Obama's 48 percent. Betting on McCain was up a whole 1 percent since his running mate, Sarah Palin, appeared in her first unscripted interview Thursday night with ABC News' Charles Gibson. For supporters of Obama, the odds have never been better in terms of potential payouts. Until now, an Obama bet would have required a significant risk: $2 or more to win $1 or $200 to win $100. And while McCain's chances now look more promising than ever, the early birds who supported the Arizona Senator are the one's looking to cash out the most. Payouts on a McCain win could be upwards of $200 for every $100 bet prior to this month. The real winners: Anyone who had McCain when he was presumed to be "dead in the water" prior to this year's primaries. For a few months period, the long time Senator had payout odds in double digits. His odds at one point were almost as great as the Arizona Cardinals chances of winning the 2009 Super Bowl - 28/1.
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User loginFeatured BookNavigationSyndicate  The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand
 Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand
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In a two horse race McCain's odds are attractive.
"You may ask - so what if some bookmaker cut the odds on Barack Obama to win the Election?
The fact is that once the bookmaker posts odds, the bettors are the factor that moves the odds in one direction or another. And the extremely shortened odds on Barack Obama could mean two things - either more people are betting that Obama will win the Presidential Election or that Democrats tend to wager more than the Republicans...much more.
And we are inclined to believe the first reason. And although wagering on Obama makes little sense at this point (his -900 odds mean that you have to wager $900 to win just $100), the underdog odds on John McCain make him a great bet, if you believe that his ticket has what it takes to win the 2008 Presidential Election in November."
I wouldn't put the house on it.
Aussie bets $50,000 on Obama win
September 30, 2008
AN Australian punter has bet $50,000 on Barack Obama winning the November US presidential election, Sportingbet Australia said.
Mr Obama's odds have shortened as polls put him further in front and big money continues to come in support of the Democratic candidate, the bookmaker said.
"We have taken a number of big bets for Obama in recent weeks, including a bet of $50,000 at $1.45 this morning,'' Sportingbet Australia chief executive Michael Sullivan said.
Mr Obama's odds have narrowed from $1.50 to $1.40 in the past week.
Republican presidential hopeful John McCain's odds have drifted out from $2.75 to $2.90.
"Until the last week, the money was fairly evenly split between McCain and Obama, but it has been all one-way traffic this week, with punters jumping off the McCain train,'' Mr Sullivan said.
Obama Sets New High: Odds Have Him Better Than 2/1
"Just weeks ago, Democratic US Presidential candidate Barack Obama was at even odds with Republican candidate John McCain. Prior to this time Obama had peaked at just over 2/1 odds (-210). Heading into Tuesday, Obama had his highest odds yet at -225 courtesy of BetUS.com, which was also offering state-by-state election betting."
"Obama has benefited from the economic downturn apparently. He was also widely perceived as winning last Friday's debate, though many experts claim McCain was the real winner in terms of foreign affairs knowledge."
Submitted by Jagajeet Chiba on Mon, 09/29/2008 - 23:27.
Victor Chandler best price 8/15 for Democrat Victory
On the eve of the first US Presidential Debate between Barack Obama and John McCain, Victor Chandler are still a best priced 8/15 about a Democrat becoming the next President of the United States despite having a large liability on that very outcome.
“We feel that 8/15 is a fair price at the moment," said their political spokesman Dave Jenkins. "Obama is leading in the polls, but a lot can happen before the vote on November 4th, and we still feel it will be very close."
26 Sept 2008 James Cameron
Gambler’s guide to presidential elections
Don McNay
"“I got it. I got it. I got your number on the wall.”
— Tommy Tutone
"The year 2008 is a turning point in my life. I quit watching pundits and rarely look at political polls. I have the answers, long before political “experts” do.
"I track who is betting on political races.
"A futures trading Web site called www.intrade.com allows you to “buy” futures contracts on the outcome of the presidential race.
"There is supposedly a difference between betting and buying futures contracts. I have no idea what it is. It looks like gambling to me.
"I grew up around bookmakers and the people at www.intrade.com figured out how to make it legal.
"I’ve followed www.intrade.com for the past year and found it to be amazingly accurate. Look at it and see.
"By going to www.intrade.com, you eliminate the television blowhards and avoid polls like the one that picked Obama to win the New Hampshire primary.
"I have not sent www.intrade.com any money. I have no idea who is behind it or where they are. I don’t like to bet, but want to know how other people are betting.
"The political futures market is a great example of an economic theory called “the wisdom of crowds.” Following money movement is a great way to predict outcomes.
"When many people put their money up, sentiment and emotion are minimized as factors.
"The www.intrade.com numbers are an interesting mix. The bettors favor Brack Obama to win over John McCain, but if you look at the betting on a state by state basis, McCain has a slight lead in the electoral votes.
"Al Gore will tell you that winning the popular vote doesn’t mean anything unless you get the electoral votes.
"Looking at the state by state breakdown, I’m stunned at how many states has already been “decided” one way or another.
"If the odds are 90 percent in one candidate’s favor, 60 days out, they are normally going to win an individual state.
"Barring something extremely weird, a vetted candidate is not going to screw it up.
"According to the trading, most of us are sitting the 2008 election out. If you are an Obama supporter in Kentucky, the odds are 98 percent to 5 percent (there is a margin of error) against your candidate. If you are a McCain supporter in Maryland, you are also out of luck. Obama has 93 percent there.
"Most of the states that were for Bush in 2004 have a 90 percent or better rating for McCain. The Kerry states are generally going for Obama.
"Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado are where the battle will be fought. Virginia, Nevada and Ohio have small leads for McCain and the other two slightly favor Obama.
"All five states went for Bush against Gore and all but New Hampshire went for Bush against Kerry. If Obama is going to win, he needs to get all the states that Gore won in 2000 and add one.
"Any one will do.
"The good news is that we won’t care about Florida. The betting favors McCain by about 65 percent.
"Every now and then, I fall into the trap of political gossip and I wonder where some people get their information. I read that some Democrats were worried about California — 93 percent of the bettors disagree with that concern.
"I thought that Obama would have a hard time winning Pennsylvania because he struggled against Hillary Clinton. Seventy-four percent of the futures traders think otherwise. Just last week, I argued that Pennsylvania was in play. The futures traders have smacked down that notion.
"A prediction does not mean that results are locked in stone. Someone can screw up or have a scandal break.
"I doubt that McCain or Obama have a girlfriend (or boyfriend) on the side. On the other hand, I never dreamed that John Edwards had a mistress.
"If Edwards had still been a viable candidate, his bettors would have lost big time.
"For every person that wins a bet, there is another person that loses. Just like an election.
"With tools like www.intrade.com, we have a better idea as to who will be victorious.
"As the late Mayor Daley of Chicago would say, “don’t make no waves, don’t back no losers.”"
Don McNay is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Ky. You can write to him at don@donmcnay.com or read his award-winning column at www.donmcnay.com
edited for netiquette permission pending
Reply from author:
Greg,
Anything that I have online is available to be posted. I am glad to have someone in New Zealand reading my column. My daughter and son in law visited your country last year and absolutely loved it. I need to get there myself.
Thanks for asking.
Don
Don McNay
don@mcnay.com
1-800-Mr. McNay (1-800 676-2629)