SOLO-International Press Release: ‘FREE RADICAL’ EXCLUSIVE: Christopher Monckton’s Open Letter to NZ PM Key on Climate Change

Peter Cresswell's picture
Submitted by Peter Cresswell on Mon, 2008-12-15 22:43

SOLO-International Press Release: ‘FREE RADICAL’ EXCLUSIVE: Christopher Monckton’s Open Letter to NZ Prime Minister John Key on Climate Change

Peter Cresswell
December 16, 2008

I’m delighted to be able to give you two very exciting pieces of news.

First, a much-delayed bumper summer issue of  ‘The Free Radical' magazine is just days away from hitting the inside of subscribers’ letterboxes – in fact, the finishing touches are being put to this issue as we speak!  Subscribe now to make sure you don’t miss out on your Christmas treat: all the reading you need to make sense of today’s current events.

Second, in anticipation of National/ACT’s select committee inquiry into climate change, we have a world exclusive Open Letter to John Key on Climate Change sent by the world’s leading climate ‘skeptic,’ Christopher Monckton – or Viscount Monckton of Brenchley as he’s known to his friends.

This is pure gold; the world’s leading climate ‘skeptic’ explains to NZ’s new Prime Minister that the apocalyptic vision of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change is a lurid and fanciful account of imagined future events that was always baseless, was briefly exciting among the less thoughtful species of news commentators and politicians, and is now thoroughly and scientifically discredited.

To give you just a taste, here’s some leading excerpts.  As you can see, it’s a thorough exposition:

  • I applaud the stated intention of both Act and National to re-examine both the fatally flawed emissions-trading plans of the previous government and the fundamentals of the science of “global warming”, but I remain concerned at your continuing policy goal – pointlessly to halve your country’s economic output.
  • Is climate change literally a “hot” topic? As you ponder that question, Sir, consider that the recorded temperature in the Christchurch of 2008 is no warmer than the Christchurch of 1910 – as you can establish for yourself by checking the record. Clearly, there are more facts to bring to bear than either your colleagues or your advisers have told you hitherto.
  • The facts which I shall give you in this letter are taken not from my own imagination, nor from the obscurantist reports of the UN’s climate panel, nor from any lobby group, but from the real-world, observed data and the peer-reviewed scientific literature.
  • Today’s temperature, in the perspective of the long recent history of our planet, is unusually low…
  • At both Poles, it was warmer only half a century ago than it is today.
  • A symposium of the International Astronomical Union [2004] concluded that it is the Sun that was chiefly responsible for the warming of the late 20th century; that the “global warming” that had been observed over the previous 300 years had ended; that global cooling would soon become the norm; and that anthropogenic effects on the climate were negligible.
  •     From 1700-1998, temperature rose at a near-uniform rate of about 1 °F per century. In 1998, “global warming” stopped, and it has not resumed since. Indeed, in the past seven years, temperature has been falling at a rate equivalent to as much as 0.7 °F per decade. Very few news media have given any prominence to this long and pronounced downturn in the temperature trend.
        The January-January fall in global mean surface temperatures between 2007 and 2008 was the steepest since global-temperature records were first compiled in 1880.
  • Since the world is not warming at the rate projected by the UN’s climate panel (the IPCC), it follows that the urgency relentlessly suggested by that panel is by no means as great as the UN’s reports would have us believe. Some 20 years ago, the IPCC told us we had ten years to avert climate disaster. Today, the IPCC’s chairman says exactly the same.
  • Despite rapidly-rising carbon dioxide concentrations, there has been no new record year for global temperature in the ten years since 1998; and, in the United States, there has been no new record year for national temperature since 1934.
  • Greenhouse gases keep the world warm enough for plant and animal life to thrive. Without them, the Earth would be an ice-planet all of the time rather than some of the time… Two-thirds of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is naturally present, and carbon dioxide occupies just one-ten-thousandth more of the atmosphere today than it did 250 years ago: for the atmosphere is large and we are small.
  • Sir, you have proposed a “target of cutting New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by the year 2050.” Yet your party is supposedly committed to free enterprise, and you have said you are “ambitious for New Zealand”. Do you not think that a far greater degree of scientific certainty as to the effects of minuscule increases in carbon dioxide concentration on temperature would be advisable before you inflict strategic damage on any such scale upon your own country’s economy from within?
  • A recent survey of 539 peer-reviewed scientific papers published since January 2004 and selected at random using the search term “global climate change” reveals that not a single paper provides any evidence whatsoever that “human induced climate change is real” or that “it’s threatening the planet.” The fictitious notion of imminent, catastrophic climate change is almost wholly absent in the scientific literature… Since the UN’s estimates are indeed exaggerations, and are known to be so, the only potentially-“credible” basis for alarmism falls away.
  •     Using computer models to predict the climate cannot ever be effective or accurate: for the climate, in the formal, mathematical sense, is chaotic… Long-run climate prediction is impossible unless we can know the initial state of the millions of variables that define the climate object, and know that state to a degree of precision that is and will always be in practice unattainable.
        It is the common characteristic of any chaotic object, such as the climate, that the slightest perturbation, however minuscule, in the initial value of even one of that object’s variables can induce substantial and unpredictable “phase transitions” – sudden changes of state – in the future evolution of the object. The climate is defined not by one or two variables but by millions.
  • The UN [IPCC, 2001], accepts that the climate is “a complex, non-linear, chaotic object”, and, consequently, that “long-term prediction of climate states is impossible.” Yet it then attempts the impossible by making predictions of climate sensitivity that are already being proven exaggerated by the failure of temperatures to rise as the computer models had predicted (or, recently, at all).
  •     All of the climate models relied upon by the UN predict that the distinguishing characteristic or “fingerprint” of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing is that in the tropical mid-troposphere, about 6 miles up, temperature over the decades should rise at two or even three times the rate of increase observed at the tropical surface.
        However (and it is crucial that you should understand this), the computer-predicted “hot-spot” over the tropics that is the supposed fingerprint of anthropogenic greenhouse warming, entirely distinct from that of any other source of warming, has not been observed in any of the tropospheric temperature datasets. Thirty years of satellite data do not show the “hot-spot” either. It is not there.
  • You also need to know that the values for climate sensitivity in the computer models – in short, the central estimates of how much the world’s temperature will increase in response to a given rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere – are not outputs from the models, but inputs to them. The computers are being told to assume high climate sensitivity, so a high climate sensitivity is what they find.
  • Let me summarize the irremediably shaky basis for the UN’s alarmist case. It is not based on physical theory. In several fundamental respects, it is at odds with theory… Nor is the UN’s case based on real-world observation: and, as we have seen, its principal predictions and conclusions are grievously at odds with real-world observation… The UN’s entire case is based on computer modeling, in which – astonishingly – the models are told at the outset the values for the very quantity (temperature response to increased carbon dioxide concentration) that we are told they are going to calculate.
  • From late 2001 on, the oceans and the atmosphere simultaneously cooled. The UN dealt with the problem by ignoring it, as did many of the news media, who simply failed to report that the world has been cooling for seven years.
  • Sea level has been rising since the end of the last Ice Age 10,000 years ago. It is 400 feet higher now than it was then. The rate of increase has averaged 4 feet per century. Yet in the 20th century .. sea level rose by little more than 7 inches… There is no scientific basis, therefore, for saying that any anthropogenic warming that may have occurred over the past 50 years has had any appreciable effect on sea level.
  • The UN imagines that most sea-level rise will come not from the melting glaciers about which the media so frequently fantasize, but from thermosteric expansion – sea water swelling as it warms. However, thermosteric expansion can only occur if the body of water in question is getting warmer. The oceans are not getting warmer (except in certain regions, such as the Antarctic Peninsula, where there is evidence of undersea volcanic activity).
  •     There is no reason to suppose that sea level will rise any faster in the 21st century than it did in the 20th – i.e., by about 8 inches…
        There is not and has never been any scientific basis for the exaggerated projections by a certain politician that sea level might imminently rise by as much as 20 feet. That politician, in the year in which he circulated a movie containing that projection, bought a $4 million condominium just feet from the ocean at Fisherman’s Wharf, San Francisco…

       In a recent case in the High Court in London the judge said of this politician that “the Armageddon scenario that he predicts is not based on any scientific view.”

  •     Given that glacial recession began long before humankind could have had any appreciable effect on global temperature, and given that the rate of recession has remained uniform, on what basis can it be said that it is anthropogenic “global warming” that is causing the glaciers to recede?
  •     Finally, only a tiny proportion of the future sea-level rise imagined by the UN’s climate panel is attributed by it to melting glaciers.
  • You will recall that in the 1940s the Arctic was warmer than it is today.
  • Both the summer and the winter extent of the sea ice surrounding Antarctica was greater in 2007/8 than at any time since the satellite record began 30 years ago.
  • But the most telling evidence of all is that the mean thickness of the Greenland ice sheet increased by 2 inches per year – a total of 1 ft 8 in – during the decade 1993-2003. Once again, there is no cause for alarm.
  • Tim Flannery, an environmentalist campaigner, “predicted” last June that Sydney’s dams would run dry. He said this was “the most extreme and the most dangerous situation arising from climate change facing any country in the world right now." He made his prediction just days before a deluge that made that month the wettest June since 1964.
  • Over a sufficient timescale of decades, then, a warmer climate will entail not a drier atmosphere but a moister one. Sure enough, some of the world’s driest regions – such as the southern Sahara – have experienced more, not less, precipitation over the period of the satellite record.
  • As to suggestions that the world is likely to see reduced water supplies, you are yet again seeing “global warming” blamed for a problem that has nothing to do with warmer weather. As the human population expands, its demands on water supplies increase. That, and not “global warming”, is why many parts of the world do not have regular supplies of drinking water.
  • There is no longer any credible, scientific basis for the implicit conclusion that “a higher incidence of extreme-weather events” has occurred because of anthropogenic “global warming.”
  •     A certain Tennessean tobacco-planter and politician, in his notoriously-inaccurate sci-fi comedy horror movie about the imagined “climate crisis”, cited a scientific paper that, he said, revealed that “global warming” was already killing polar bears.
        However, the paper concerned, had actually said that just four polar bears had died in the Beaufort Sea, not because “global warming” had made sea-ice scarce, but because of unusually strong winds and high sea states in a severe Arctic storm. The politician had simply chosen to misstate the principal conclusion of the paper on the cause of the polar bears’ death, because the truth did not fit the great lie.
  •     Intrigued by this evidence that there is more ice, not less, in the Beaufort Sea, I decided additionally to check the total extent of sea ice in the Arctic on 30 November 1979 and on 30 November 2008. I found that there was almost as much sea ice on St. Andrew’s day this year as there was in the first year of the satellite record…
        I also decided to check whether the global sea-ice extent had declined in response to the supposed “global warming” of the past 30 years. It had not. There has been no trend – no trend at all – throughout the period of satellite observations.
  • The key characteristic of a species at risk is, of course, declining population. However, the population of polar bears is not plummeting. Instead, there are five times as many polar bears in the Arctic today than there were in the 1940s. As you may think, Sir, that is hardly the profile of a species facing imminent extinction as its habitat shrinks away.
  • I have presented evidence, drawn directly from the raw data and from the peer-reviewed, scientific literature, to establish that, at the very least, there is reasonable doubt about whether destroying the Western economies on the scale now proposed ... would make any difference whatever to the climate, even if there were a “climate crisis” ...

And finally,

  • Sir, every one of the reasons advanced by the IPCC and its faithful adherents for alarm and consequent panic action has been demonstrated to be hollow and without any scientific foundation or merit. Yet, if your proposal to close down half of the economy of New Zealand is to be justifiable, then the false scientific and policy propositions that you apparently support must be shown to be true.

I did say it was thorough – and this is just the excerpts!

Don’t miss out if you want this, and much more, in your mailbox before Christmas. Subscribe now!

Peter Cresswell
Editor
The Free Radical
pc.blogspot.com

SOLO SOLOPassion.com


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Ah, I stand corrected-

mvardoulis's picture

I wrote: "Is there anything cooler than a new issue of The Free Radical'?"

PC responds: "No."

You're quite right, what was I thinking? Smiling

Equal coolest

Peter Cresswell's picture

"Is there anything cooler than a new issue of The Free Radical'?"

No.

In fact, I believe in the forthcoming Guinness Book of Records under 'Coolest Thing in the World' there are two equal winners: a new issue of The Free Radical,' and this.

Which is pretty cool. Smiling

Cheers, Peter Cresswell

* * * *

'NOT PC.'
**Setting Brushfires In People's Minds**

ORGANON ARCHITECTURE
**Integrating Architecture With Your Site**

What??

Ross Elliot's picture

Comprehension obviously isn't your strong suit, Greg. Get a grip.

Fin.

Read it again Ross

gregster's picture

"Same with the Warmist claims. The longer the current situation obtains, the more obvious their scaremongering will be. They are desperate to see their agenda forced through while there's still so little political doubt about their claims."

Is the same as:

"In other words, action won't be taken in time in futile combatting of "climate change," or CO2, as it was with CFCs."

11th hour

Ellen Stuttle's picture

Ross:

I sense a general rise in the warmist hysteria as industrialised countries fail to rattle their dags on emissions controls. The reason is obvious: the longer we leave it, the more apparent it will become that Man has nothing to do any change whatsoever.

The one good thing I can see in the current global financial meltdown -- which unlike AGW is real -- is that it might have bought time in which to delay the enactment of emissions controls long enough for it to become glaringly apparent that the AGW scare is a scam.

Christopher Monckton sure can write up a storm.

He can talk one too -- he's as good at public speaking as he is at writing.

There are links on my husband's website to a PowerPoint presentation Christopher (as in fact he's called by his friends Eye) gave at the University of Hartford 5March2008.

Ellen

http://uhaweb.hartford.edu/LGO...

True...

Ross Elliot's picture

...but cronyism is all over the place. There are plenty of businesses who have jumped on the Warmist bandwagon. The market tends to follow the money.

If remember correctly, the

Duncan Bayne's picture

If remember correctly, the movement to ban CFCs received quite some support from Dupont ... once their patent on freon was due to expire. You can't solely blame the greens for CFC hysteria as to a large extent it was crony-capitalism.

 

---
Buy and wear InfidelGear - 100% of all InfidelGear profit goes to SOLO!

Ah, Greg...

Ross Elliot's picture

...(and Luke), if you want to ask a question (of the non-rhetorical kind), then ask it.

You've got the wrong end of the stick. My point, clearly, was that the EnviroNazis had CFCs banned despite the fact that the science was shonky and didn't support their conclusions. But the hysteria they stirred up saw most countries ban CFCs outright. That effectively makes the issue a dead duck. They won that battle.

Same with the Warmist claims. The longer the current situation obtains, the more obvious their scaremongering will be. They are desperate to see their agenda forced through while there's still so little political doubt about their claims.

It's true, Michael. We've

Callum McPetrie's picture

It's true, Michael. We've all been wondering what's going on with the Free Radical recently, so it's great to see a new edition (it always is, but this is extra special!)

"Socialism may be dead, but its corpse is still rotting up the place." -Ayn Rand

I'll restate....

mvardoulis's picture

...a libertarian government *anywhere* would possibly be the only thing cooler than a new Free Radical...!

Indeed...

Jameson's picture

Evil

Let's keep ...

Lindsay Perigo's picture

... the Libz stuff on the Libz/Linz thread. This one here is an occasion we can all celebrate.

Oooh, Michael...

Jameson's picture

... yeah, no, best you don't mention what's happening with the Libz. Smiling

Bravo Mr. Cresswell!!!

mvardoulis's picture

Is there anything cooler than a new issue of The Free Radical? (okay, well maybe a LibertariaNZ government in New Zealand would be cooler...)

Can't wait, Mr. C!

A Viscount might count for something!?

gregster's picture

That's brilliant Peter. Facts a lot of us here have argued with the where-are-they-nows for some time. And where are the "warmists" that used to show their faces?

Luke, I can fathom what Ross says: "The game will be up, something that didn't happen with the CFC hysteria of the 90s"

In other words, action won't be taken in time in futile combatting of "climate change," or CO2, as it was with CFCs.

Why on earth can't you?

something that didn't

Luke H's picture

something that didn't happen with the CFC hysteria of the 90s which lead to the ban on those harmless molecules.

Are you serious? :O

Excellent

Ross Elliot's picture

If Rodney is not a subscriber then I assume a complimentary copy will be winging its way to him soon.

I sense a general rise in the warmist hysteria as industrialised countries fail to rattle their dags on emissions controls. The reason is obvious: the longer we leave it, the more apparent it will become that Man has nothing to do any change whatsoever. The game will be up, something that didn't happen with the CFC hysteria of the 90s which lead to the ban on those harmless molecules.

Magnificent!

Lindsay Perigo's picture

A terrific wrap-up of the anti-AGW case. Bravo! And bravo PC and FreeRad!

I'm nervously confident of a good outcome. Key knows this stuff already. Rodney will be egging him on for the better. It's a matter of marginalising that idiot Nick Smith.

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