The universe is knowable.

gregster's picture
Submitted by gregster on Mon, 2011-10-31 10:58

Man can trust and exploit his senses with confidence. These endowments are not some cosmic plug-in, hindering or detracting from the benevolence of existence, for he who chooses to think.

Rationality, the faculty of reason by non-contradictory identification, does enable discrimination of truth from distraction, in a given context.

This is readily demonstrated in the field of thoroughbred horse racing.

The universe’s greatest glorified handicap – the Melbourne Cup – proceeds on the first Tuesday of each November.

Objectivity is the foremost attribute of every successful punter. This is not an event when subjective selection by colours, names, parochial favourites, or numerology will evidence any truth.

In 1508-1516 Michelangelo toiled in the Sistine Chapel as King Henry VIII busied himself improving the Royal breeding stock.

While Mozart worked wonders in 1780 Diomed was imposing itself on the track. Karl Benz was refining his automobiles while greats Carbine and Cyllene were setting new standards for the thoroughbred in the 1890s.

Just as man visited the moon by exploiting each prior scientific discovery, so too he relies on evidence gained by numerous trials, and some errors in the quest for successful selections in this stratospheric event.

The Cup is a seductive trap for second-hander novices reserving their yearly sole flutter for this day, and for whom the unsuccessful employment of subjectivity results in perennial mystification, until the next running.

This is a race, more than any other, where what you see is what you get. I don’t mean the colours of the silks, or the wealth of the owner, or the name or number. I mean the pedigree.

The two mile trip is a gradient filter. Pedigree gives us the best clue, along with form, as to which majestic animal should triumph.

Greg's Selections
WIN Americain, last year's winner, and looking sharp. The only negative is the top weight of 58kg but the horse doesn't know that, and Makybe Diva carried 58 in a quick time for her third win. Americain recently powered on to beat front-running Tullamore in what looked to be a canter. Super impressive.

SECOND Tullamore, benefits by 5kg compared to its recent second to Americain.
THIRD Jukebox Jury

FIRST FOUR Dunaden
FIRST FOUR Illo
FIRST FOUR Niwot
FIRST FOUR Mourayan

[Mourayan benefits from Val De Loir, a high class stayer, but not as closely as did Zabeel.]

I am leaving out Glass Harmonium due to jockey Lisa Cropp.

Previous recent winners, for pedigree reference:
Viewed < Scenic < Sadlers Wells
Shocking < Street Cry < Machiavellian < Mr Prospector, from a Danehill mare.
Efficient < Zabeel < Sir Tristram < Sir Ivor < Sir Gaylord < Turn-to.

[Sir Gaylord’s dam Somethingroyal also gave us the greatest horse ever – Secretariat.]

Delta Blues. And last but not least, Makybe Diva. Note well what Makybe Diva, a winner in three years running, was made of - three and four generations back - each sire a champion and each dam from champions.

The full field is here. If the going alters to better than dead then all bets are off.

I won't say good luck, and don't take my word for it - use the pedigrees - each man should take his own choices.


I took the afternoon off

gregster's picture

I know how it was, yes, I agree. I thought Americain got overtaken at the end! But he was at the back. I was at the recently upgraded red light district bar the Right Track in Fort Street. (Wouldn't drink there if it was called the Left Track.) Until tonight I didn't realise how well Americain tried to make up for his jockey's errors. What a performer! The judge needed three minutes to make up his mind on the winner (or wait for the bribe to come in.)

Ha Ha the re-run

Sandi's picture

When I watched the race (at a pub with work mates), the reporting of the race was so hard to comprehend, that we had no idea of who was first, second, third or last. None of us had any clue to the place getters until quite a few minutes after the race. In fact there was nobody standing and shouting because none of us had the slightest clue to what was happening. And that was only after a single drink!
Goodness sakes, we all needed a cup of tea and a lie down, just to get over the failure to comprehend the momentum.

Nice to hear, oops

gregster's picture

I lost $35 on the race but gained back double that soon after, fortunately.

Obviously I failed to put in Red Cadeaux, the $14 dollar-a-place second getter by a nose. This was because his form didn't suggest that much. The jockey Michael Rodd was brilliant, as was Corey Brown on the German third.

I put that German in my bet the next day. And that is the difficulty with giving tips the day before - the weather changes. On the day the track dried out with the wind, and as I wrote "better than dead" wouldn't suit Americain.

I wanted to do a similar tip thing last year, but things got in the way, and we would have had the trifecta (I got it), that's why I wanted to give it a shot this time. And we all can do with some time from philosophy.

Sandi - I find the pedigrees really interesting and remember much of it. Bit autistic.

Thank you Greg

Sandi's picture

I LOVED your tips and heeded them with the first 3 in a $24 TAB special bet thing. Anyhow, I also put 5 each way on "Prescendence" because, hey I've cuddled it's half sister. (big Zabeel fan out of no reason other than they are such pretty horses)

Them's the breaks and Greg, I'd still follow your researched advice with zest. AND if you show me your tips I'll show you mine. (Great recipes that is).

Years ago I rode track work (The proceeds kept my pony in hay).

Finally, for the record.

gregster's picture

I've just watched it for the second time. Americain without doubt was the superior animal beaten by a poorly judged ride. At the final bend he is near last, and he makes magnificent gains to end up accelerating to win somewhere after the finish Smiling . (No kidding.)

Americain 'backwash of interference'

gregster's picture

"What brought about Americain's fourth yesterday was he received the backwash of interference to Hawk Island and Tullamore in the straight the first time - and with it any chance of settling close to the leaders.

Jockey Gerald Mosse allowed the horse to balance under 58kg and displayed patience, though some will say he waited too long. In his defence, three brilliant rides were unfolding ahead of him."

Jukebox lame after Cup

gregster's picture

Jukebox Jury finished near the tail of the Melbourne Cup field after injuring his near foreleg
during the race.

Mourayan was late withdrawal

gregster's picture

THE Lloyd Williams-owned Mourayan has been sensationally scratched from this afternoon's $6.2m Melbourne Cup.

Mourayan, runner-up in Saturday's Mackinnon Stakes at his final lead-up, developed a secondary hoof issue after exercise at owner Lloyd Williams' private training establishment at Mount Macedon.

Mourayan was a $15 chance in the Cup and was to have been ridden by Hugh Bowman.

Williams still has At First Sight in the Cup with Steven King booked to ride.

Mourayan shifted a plate on Saturday, causing the horse to be lame. Williams' vet recommended bar plates be fitted on the forelegs to give support and offset the lameness.

The stable vet passed the horse fit at 6am, but a new issue emerged in the toe of the troublesome hoof and it became clearer that Mourayan would not be able to take his place in the field.

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