Lateral thinking

Ross Elliot's picture
Submitted by Ross Elliot on Mon, 2012-09-10 09:10

The idea that Israel needs to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities--a tricky job, to say the least--may be misbegotten.

Don't go for the jugular, go for the body.

I'm not suggesting, as the article does, a nuclear burst, but you could sure go for infrastructure. An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would be seen as an act of war, and Iran would retaliate. So why not knock out their power grid which would cause more disruption and be perhaps more effective. It would invite no more retaliation than an attack on nuclear facilities.

It's coming, make no doubt. Either Israel does something to dissuade Iran, or Iran gets nukes.

Think of Israel. Her miniscule size. The animosity to which she is subject to because of her heroic defeat of Arab attacks in the past 60 years. The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya and Egypt. The sotto voce Saudis. It's no joke. It's life or death every day. It's a cold war ready to go hot at any moment.

Israel has nukes but she has never threatened any nation with destruction, although she could do so. Then ask yourself what Israeli commanders have to evaluate each time a missile appears on their screens. Sure, up until now they've had a fair idea that it's not a nuke. But how can they be so certain in the coming years? They can't. How could you live under those conditions? You couldn't.

Be of good cheer, Ross...

Craig Ceely's picture

Oh, I quite agree with you. Rock. Hard place.

But there's always North Korea, and the Hindu Kush.

And since you mention the Saudis, they've already announced that they'll go nuclear if Iran does. So will Egypt. Isn't it good to know that such nice actors have nuclear weapons programs?

Good info, Craig

Ross Elliot's picture

Rock. Hard place.

Air to ground

Craig Ceely's picture

I can speak with a bit of authority as to why the Israelis haven't yet conducted any air strikes on Iran: because they know how good some of the Iranian air defense missile systems are.

Because they use the same system. Both nations use the HAWK system -- obtained from the US -- and as one with a background in that field I can tell you that the HAWK acquisition radar is, to this day, one of the most sophisticated radars in the world.

Now, Israel also has Patriot, and Iran does not --- but we're not speaking of Iranian air attacks on Israel, so the Patriot factor doesn't matter here. And I don't know what other air defenses Iran has. I assume that in trying to cover a large territory they have given some thought to defense in depth, but I don't know that firsthand.

What I do know is that is any Israeli air attack on Iran will probably result in Iran's biting back, and in real time, and the Israelis will pay dearly.

There is no good answer here, Ross, not even mine. I fear the situation is in the hands of the diplomats and the missile submarine commanders. The intelligence agencies and politicians -- on all sides -- have failed us miserably, and have lied about it to boot.

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