Which media? The conservative media are favoring Romney, sometimes very heavily. The MSM is favoring Obama. The same MSM that has no interest in investigating Benghazi.

Forget the media, Marcus. Just look inside the numbers and see what makes sense to you.

As I said before, I have nowhere near certainty that Romney will win. I give him better than even odds, which is about the best I can say at this point. I really do not get all the proclamations of certainty about the outcome, or what it is meant to prove.

Anyway, it is not long now...

Michael

...from the consensus view in the media.

That view says it is a tie with Obama starting to pull ahead.

There aren't many elections where the media has got it wrong.

As they are still promoting the "tie" idea though they might just be allowing themselves enough wiggle room to not be surprised by a Romney win.

So I hopw you're right.

Well, I am interested in Linz's answer that makes him certain that Airhead America will prevail.

As to polls, they did shift earlier in favor of Romney. I find it a little strange that you took a Pew poll from the Guardian and used it to claim certainty. Rasmussen has Romney up +1 nationally, and we will see Gallup again today, which earlier had Romney up +4 or +5.

I was urging you to look at the early votes, which is what is actually counted. I think the early votes buttress the criticism that the D/R/I splits in many of the state polls are way off because many of them are premised on a 2008 turnout. Not gonna happen.

This doesn't mean Romney will win, I can't predict their respective turnouts. But I have no idea where you are getting all the certainty.

Michael

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/t...

Linz has lost faith in airhead America.

I've lost faith in polls for Romney. If they didn't shift earlier, why now when Obama got a boost from Sandy?

If we are wrong we will be pleasantly surprised.

The Filth will eventually be impeached over Benghazigate. It'll be a repeat of Watergate, which broke well before the 1972 election but didn't kick in till after it. The only issue for TF will be whether to fight impeachment or resign, as Nixon did. Of course, this is assuming economic catastrophe doesn't bring him down first.

I don't know Lindsay. He should be impeached but the media will protect him. Remember in America the Left has sacralized black people. He is the first black President and as such he is sacred. The Left wields the racism charge like a club and they know how to use it and the "right" folds like a tent every time. If he is impeached, you can bet there will be black riots and violence directed at whites. As it is, if he should somehow lose the election, I am thinking of staying in for a couple of days to see what happens. Every race realist in America is thinking the same thing but of course no one admits it. You can't.

Such is the nature of the Left and its racial egalitarianism/marxism. Its ugly. I think TF gets away with, in essence, killing those men at Benghazi. Rat bastard.

"Once re-elected"...I would like to know what makes you so certain?

The actual early voter numbers are not looking good for Obama. Unless he gets a crazy turnout on election day, I think it is better than even odds he goes down.

I am not nearly as optimistic as Michael Barone or Dick Morris. However, two polls came out in PA and MI today -- with much more realistic D/R/I splits than what many of the polls are using -- and Obama and Romney are tied. If it is really that close in PA and MI, I'm not discounting Romney winning this thing in a blowout.

Michael

I think when the enormity of TF's lies and betrayal percolates, it'll be impossible for the mainstream media, however unspeakably corrupt they undoubtedly are, to contain the scandal. As I say, with Watergate, it was out there—just took months to be taken seriously, by which time Nixon had won re-election.

Why drive out to your polling place and stand in line for half an hour or more - when your vote isn't very likely to singlehandedly determine the Presidency - and then vote for someone you don't even want?

Stop Voting For Nincompoops

...Benghazigate might just be glossed over as if it never happened, or, perhaps, it will be twisted.

The only news station that will report it will be Fox News; the others will likely ignore it.

... The Filth will eventually be impeached over Benghazigate. It'll be a repeat of Watergate, which broke well before the 1972 election but didn't kick in till after it. The only issue for TF will be whether to fight impeachment or resign, as Nixon did. Of course, this is assuming economic catastrophe doesn't bring him down first.

... in fact, much older than he did during his 2008 campaign.

Perhaps his four years in the Oval Office have aged him, or perhaps he has stopped using his Just for Men hair conditioner.

If Obama were to die in office, and Biden assumes the presidency, could you imagine the headlines?

Our great leader has sacrificed himself to the common good! We should do the same!

The headlines will read like the above, in content if not in form.

If you thought the laws he passed, while alive, are bad, just wait until you see the laws that will be passed when he is dead. They will be passed because of his death, in honor of his selfless self-sacrifice.

It would be a nightmare.

...writes this: "Pew figures show Obama leading 48-45% among likely voters."

So that is it! Another four years!

Many have observed Obama looking gaunt these days.

It's true. When I think about he makes all his suits look a size too big.

Maybe the stress of it all will kill him?

Then it'll be good ol' Preisdent Joe!

Romney By a Nose, Democrats Hold Senate

Victory is predicted by virtue of the number of Obama vs Romney halloween masks sold!

http://mobile.usnews.com/opini...

They dont all say it..

...won't change it.

The liberal media are predicting a tight race because they don't want their voters to stay at home. At the same time they are quietly confident of victory.

There are alot of voters that are actually waiting for election day, and I do not believe there are going to be as many dems turning out like they did in the last election.

In NZ, there is little comment on the US election. But what there is, favors Obama.

There seems to be a certain quiet as to an Obama victory. This is despite a huge international *desire* as to an Obama win.

I wouldn't be so sure.

...all the crucial swing states.

...you're basing that on what?

Unless the polls are hopelessly wrong I don't see how he can lose.

It was Romney's election to lose and he lost it.

Filth, it seems, will fade away
Drifting further every day
Getting lost within himself
Nothing matters, no one else
He has lost the will to run
Simply nothing more to take
There is nothing more for him
Need the end to set us free

Things not what they used to be
Mohammedan inside of us
Deathly lost, this can't be real
Can't stand this hell we feel
Obama was fooling us
To the point of tyranny
Republicans taking down
Obama, soon he'll be gone

No one but he can save himself, but it's too late
Now he can't think, think why he should even try

Obama seems as though he never existed
GOP greets us warm, now we will just say goodbye—and good riddance!

"I wish they would dis-invent the smart phone and social media. And fuck Steve Jobs too. I don't care that Objectivists think he was super productive. The smart phone and FecesBook is robbing us of our humanity. (And it is making women fucking unbearable.) "

...Bandler you've got your cock so far up Lindsay's metaphorical ass that I'm surprised he can swallow.

How about you stop using the technology that Jobs, et al. made and go back to living in your conservative cave?

No? You don't like this free-for-all discussion? Well, maybe we can fuck Jobs and have it, too.

Idiot.

One thing that may puzzle people here is WHY would ANYONE vote for Obama.

My answer is gate fever.  The fear that many long term prisoners face when their sentence is almost over and they are faced with a life of freedom.  From our perspective this is an irrational fear.  To a "lifer" it is very very real.  Imagine if you will a person in prison for 30 years being regimented so utterly every single day.  When to eat, what to eat, having to ask when to piss, what he can read, when he can read, when to go to sleep, when to excersise...you get the point...

America has for the last 4 years become even more regimented than ever before.  Compound this with Obama's seizing control of financial institutions, gaining control of gm via bail out and handing it over to the workers(proletariat) using "executive order" powers more than any past president and attacking the middle and upper class(some of which have become lower class due to his screwing with the economy) and what we have now is a large number of voters that are in effect "lifers" to the system.  These people have been drained of the spark of individualism and are left dependant on the warden Obama for their needs.  Faced with the prospects of freedom and the self reliance and self responsibility that would entail these "lifers" at election time are faced with "Gate Fever" and so will vote for their comfortable self imposed prisons and vote for Obama.  To get a really good understanding of this phenomenom watch "shawshank Redemption" and ponder what happened to the character Brooks Hatlen when he was released.

Lindsay: "A vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for The Filth."

A vote for Libz circa 2008 was a vote for the Labour filth.

But, hang on:

"No, a vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for Gary Johnson."

That's true.

Oh, how complex this voting thing is. So hard to vote your conscience in one election yet vote (or advocate a vote) tactically in another.

The failure of government to provide military support for its own sounds similar to the plight of General Charles Gordon and the failure of the British Government under Gladstone to respond to Gordon's request for back up in the Siege of Khartoum.

Interesting observation from you, Doug, regarding Romney, the NT Christian, and Auster, the OT Christian (Jew), in terms of this historical event. You see, Gladstone was a NT Christian and did not like war. Disraeli (his opposition who demanded that military support be provided) was an OT Jew. By the time Queen Victoria intervened and demanded that support be provided, it was too late. The army arrived two days after the Siege and Gordon's death.

A vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for The Filth.

No, a vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for Gary Johnson.

Why isn't Milksop Mitt saying this?!

Here is how I think of it. Romney is a NT Christian. That means he stresses Christ's message of self-sacrifice and self-immolation as a path to virtue; ie virtue through restraint.

But take Larry Auster, the Conservative I keep quoting here. He is an OT Christian and that means he has the fire and wrath of Mosaic Judaism in his belly. No that is not better for liberty in the long run. But that type of Conservative would press the Filth on Benghazigate.

The Republicans could have BURIED the Filth on this issue if they pressed it. ITS WORSE THAN WATERGATE!!!! But their self-sacrificial ethics wont allow it.

In one sense, Romney does deserve to lose and he may. But the potential nightmare of four more years of Prez Filth means that I WANT Romney to win even though he is a weakling.

Is there honour anywhere?

Linz, you have an elevated soul to ask this question. I must too in my own way because I ask it all the time too. I'm sick to my stomach from the people I meet. No one seems to care about anything other than who they can text next or what the latest update to their FaceBook page is.

I wish they would dis-invent the smart phone and social media. And fuck Steve Jobs too. I don't care that Objectivists think he was super productive. The smart phone and FecesBook is robbing us of our humanity. (And it is making women fucking unbearable.)

Yes, there is no honor anywhere and no class and no stature and no moral virtue and ....

A vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for The Filth. But I'd find it hard to vote for Milksop Mitt right now.

Am I the only one to be beyond-dumbfounded that the Republicans haven't made an issue of Benghazigate?

Here, honourable men defy "stand down" orders (probably from The Filth) to rescue besieged staffers, including a United States ambassador, from rampaging Islamofilth. They lose their lives in the process, as does the ambassador. The Filth goes to bed and then to a fundraiser (after lying in the Rose Garden, and I don't mean horizontally), and has been piling lie on lie about this ever since, and Milksop Mitt won't even raise the issue?????!!!!!! It beggars belief. NO ONE FUCKING CARES!!!!!! Today McCain and Rubio were on about it, both piss-weak. Such lily-livered yellow-bellies are unfit for public office and don't deserve to win.

Is there honour anywhere?

Here's a half-KASS letter sent to The Filth by Senator Pat Roberts:

Dear Mr. President:

During these final days of this coming election, I have been conducting town hall meetings in Kansas.

I am fully aware this letter comes in the midst of 24-7 political tumult. However, I am compelled to share with you my strongest possible concern and recommendation regarding an issue that I know you recognize as being paramount and about which you care deeply.

I am also writing this letter as the most senior Marine in the United States Congress, as a former Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and as a former Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Since the attack of September 11 in Benghazi, the great majority of people in attendance in our town hall meetings – regardless of political party – believe there are more questions than answers. They also believe both you and your administration have not been square with them.

There has been an outpouring of disbelief from folks about the initial explanation from you and members of your administration that the deaths of our fellow Americans came as a result of some obscure video rather than a pre-planned, carefully orchestrated terrorist attack. Mr. President, folks are just not buying it!

Facts are stubborn things and as more relevant facts are now becoming public, it should come as no great shock to anyone that this issue has been “politicized.” It has been ever since the first explanation was orchestrated from your administration.

However, I want to stress and emphasize there is an issue of much greater importance. The major media have not comprehensively reported on this unraveling issue, so many Americans may not be aware of what has and is taking place.

But, you can be sure every single member of our United States military services now knows that the sacred bond of never leaving a comrade in distress or danger may be worthless as of the date of this disgrace. We cannot allow this to happen. We cannot let this issue fester and infect the bond of taking care of our own. As one veteran stated so well in one of our town hall meetings:

“When I signed up I knew I would likely be put in harm’s way. But I also knew someone would have my back. I just don’t know if that is true today.”

Mr. President, it is my belief that until you, as Commander in Chief, publicly and in detail inform the American public of what happened and why, that bond, which has existed as long as the United States of America has fielded armies, is breaking. We must know why American assets at the scene or close by were not utilized to save American lives acting in the line of duty.

That is why I feel compelled to sincerely ask you to make time in your schedule to publicly explain in detail the unfortunate attack which occurred September 11 in Benghazi.

This request for you to set the record straight and restore the bond of “sacrifice for each other” to our fighting forces is made with the deepest concern and utmost sincerity. I truly believe the future morale and effectiveness of our military services may be at stake.

This is a burden that you or any future Commander in Chief should not have to bear.

Why isn't Milksop Mitt saying this?!

Just to be clear: Although I’ll be voting for Gary Johnson, I don’t fault anyone for voting for Mittens based on their own personal judgments, so long as they’re based on fact.

This is even worse. Its the equivalent of a vote for Obama. I consider Hsieh to be the perfect example of the Randroid idiot. This woman is a moron.

She doesn't understand the main point that I keep stressing; ie that the Left is an order of magnitude (actually several orders of magnitude) of greater evil than modern Conservatives.

What a fucking dingbat.

I think Romney's gonna win, in line with what Michael is saying: GOP voters are motivated - they stayed home in 2008. They came out in 2010. They're coming out this time. Dem voters are dispirited and the feeling has gone. They'll stay home. And independents are going to Romney.

Early voting stats appear to support this.

You see President B.O. as a lame duck - tell that to the families of his Benghazi victims. He circumvents congress..

By Amit Ghate

In the 76 years from Washington to Lincoln, our presidents issued a combined 191 executive orders. The Roosevelt’s were the kings of EO’s with Teddy promulgating 1,081 and FDR 3,552. Recent presidents have been issuing about 200 per term. But it isn’t just the numbers that count. To appreciate the danger of bypassing the checks and balances of our constitution, consider a sampling of the types of actions performed under executive order: 110,000 Japanese forcibly interned during WWII (FDR), steel mills seized (Truman, later challenged and found unconstitutional in the Supreme Court), affirmative action programs instituted (beginning with Kennedy and expanded by later presidents), price controls imposed (Nixon), and faith-based initiatives established (GW Bush).

President Obama has not only continued this troubling trend, he has fully embraced it in an effort to circumvent constitutional limits. As the NY Times reported in April, Obama is now expanding the use of executive orders under the rubric “We Can’t Wait”. Explains his chief of staff: “The president expressed frustration, saying we have got to scour everything and push the envelope in finding things we can do on our own.”

Unfortunately, given that government bureaucracy has increased, that laws have become less specific ( see Pelosi’s “we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it”) and increasingly mind-numbing (e.g. the 2,700 page Obamacare legislation, or the 70,000+ pages in the tax code), there is ample opportunity for a president to take advantage of ambiguity to “do things on his own”.

Not really.

http://www.philosophyinaction....

Excerpt:

"So Peikoff was wrong in his predictions in 2004, but that’s hardly surprising. Accurate political predictions are nearly impossible, even for professionals immersed in the political news. (That’s not Peikoff, by his own admission.) Such predictions depend too much on unforeseeable events, including the free choices of many, many people. Hence, I just don’t place much stock in anyone’s political predictions over the next four years, except to say that that apocalyptic predictions will very likely be very wrong. (Again, my reasons why can be found in this podcast segment.)

"Mostly though, Objectivists need to understand that we might as well vote for the Man on the Moon as Mittens. We are a completely insignificant voting block. Our votes just don’t matter. So for Objectivists to make asses of themselves based on the pretense that a person’s vote reveals his deepest character is pointless and destructive. (Just to be clear: Although I’ll be voting for Gary Johnson, I don’t fault anyone for voting for Mittens based on their own personal judgments, so long as they’re based on fact.)"

I think that Diana Hsieh is actually going to vote for Obama.

Seriously??!!

I was hoping that the winds and floods might wash away a few more Dem-dregs.

The storm seems to have been beneficial to ObaFilth. Apparently, many in Airhead America think that ObaFilth has acted "Presidentially". I could spit.

Instead we got Chris Christie sucking up to The Filth. Aaaaaaaaaaaaargh!!!!!!!!!!

Mainstream Republicans being their own worst enemy by shaking hands with those that hate them. Christie is a zero. He stands for nothing. And he is pompous. He is essentially a moderate left-liberal who wants a balanced budget. He couldn't spell the word principle.

In any event, nothing is more important in the short term than ejecting The Filth from the White House, even if that means voting for Milksop Mitt. Certainly, a vote for some Saddamite masquerading as a libertarian is just another vote for Obamarx.

Exactly. I'm wondering, what is the consensus coming from Objectivism land? Are they still worried over their "M2 Christian dictatorship"? Or are they seeing the evil of the Left for what it is? I think that Diana Hsieh is actually going to vote for Obama. If many Objectivists agree with her than what can one say about the Objectivist movement?

Of the state polls. Some of these polls, like the state polls being put out by NBC and CBS, are weighted towards Dems heavier than the 2008 election, which was already off the charts historically because of the Obama fad. There is no way the Dems come close to their 2008 turnout, much less surpass it.

Note also that Beckel almost had a heart attack when confronted with the early voting numbers. The Obama campaign is touting this in certain swing states, but if you look at those numbers vs. 2008, the margins have shrunk, except for perhaps Iowa. Allegedly, Obama is not getting turnout in the counties that favor him. Apparently, it is difficult to get airheads to vote when it is no longer "cool" to do so.

I am not as optimistic as Morris, mostly because the polls are all over the place. Usually the national and state polls converge near election day, but there is still a divergence, so one has to be wrong. Personally, I think Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe Nevada, will all be close and the election will be decided among those states.

Maybe Morris has good numbers and will be correct. Who knows?

I soured on Christie a long time ago. His fat fingers like to pull the levers of government in all kinds of ways. It is rather interesting that in an emergency, when NJ and NY are desperate for gas and other supplies, both Christie and Obama start removing bureaucratic red tape and regulations to get things going again -- an implicit admission that their government regulations do nothing but stand in the way.

Michael

... Karl Rove, and Dick Morris, and Newt saying it'll be a Romney romp. I also hear Joe Trippi, and am reassured by his nervousness. But The Filth remains stubbornly ahead in most polls in the swing states, especially Ohio. I note many boffins are positing a Romney win in the popular vote but a loss where it counts—in the Electoral College.

I was hoping that the winds and floods might wash away a few more Dem-dregs. Instead we got Chris Christie sucking up to The Filth. Aaaaaaaaaaaaargh!!!!!!!!!!

That's a pleasing sign given that Obama made so much of his "early" vote to try and motivate his supporters to do the same.

Romney has done a better job of getting out the early vote. Check out this Pew analysis. Traditionally, Dems hold an advantage in the early vote, and Republicans have better turnout on election day. If Obama has an advantage in the early vote, it does not appear to be by much.

Even in places where Obama does hold an advantage right now, he has dropped off significantly from 2008. I think it was Karl Rove who pointed out that Obama has lost a significant amout of votes from this time in 2008, and Romney has gained significantly over McCain. The net difference, +262,000 votes in Romney's favor, was the number of votes by which Obama defeated McCain.

This doesn't mean Romney will necessarily win, a lot will depend on election day turnout. The Ohio polls have been rather stubborn for Obama so far. Nevertheless, the early voter numbers spell trouble for Obama.

Michael

...I hope you are right.

How did Romney neutralise the early voting strategy of the Obama camp?

I'm not questioning the truth of it I'm just curious how he did it.

You wrote:

"did indeed. Partly to provoke the optimists into giving me hope. I'm delighted to be outnumbered, but I fear it's too late. The land of the free has morphed irretrievably into Airhead America."

I'll give you some hope. The national polls have Romney winning, the state polls have Obama winning. However, to put Obama ahead, many of the state polls have huge Democrat turnout, often times bigger than 2008. That's not going to happen.

The luster, the "coolness", has worn off of Obama; therefore, it is difficult to motivate the airheads to go vote. If you look inside the numbers, Romney has a big lead with independents and Republican enthusiasum is higher than Democratic (i.e. more likely to vote). Combine that with Romney neutralizing Obama's early voter turnout, and I think Obama is in big trouble. The fact that the Obama campaign is spending money to defend states like MN, MI, and PA -- states that should be in the bag for Obama -- illustrates Obama is in trouble.

Strategically, Romney ran a decent campaign. Picking Paul Ryan was a good decision. Romney's debate prep and his execution in the first two debates was well done. He squandered what could have been a knockout punch in the third debate by not attacking on Benghazi, and not attacking Obama's overall foreign policy philosophy. He also let Obama define him too much early in the campaign, but it is hard to argue with the overall strategy now that Romney is in a good position to win.

Philosophically, well, it is Mitt Romney!! As you say, Linz, he is not a laissez-faire capitalist, but he is also not a committed anti-capitalist Marxist hell-bent on radically transforming America.

Michael

...Obama.

I consider Obama to be a joke.

If he wins though, and from polling it looks like he will, I believe the US will still survive to fight another day.

http://www.dianawest.net/Home/...

So even that one accomplishment is marred.

1) Obamacare (not universally loved)

2) Osama bin Laden

All his other objectives he has failed to deliver.

http://www.dianawest.net/Home/...

It is only going to more of this if he is elected...

...at the moment, but it is close.

Therefore I will wait until a few days before voting.

Anyway it will be much better for the US if Mitt wins, however it will not be a disaster if Obama wins. I don't think Obama will accomplish much in the next four years. He was a lame duck in his first term and will be even weaker in his second.

"In any event, nothing is more important in the short term than ejecting The Filth from the White House, even if that means voting for Milksop Mitt."

Tactical voting? That's why I voted National in 2008. Yet I was vilified for it.

Oh, that's right, America is more important than NZ. The same arguments don't apply. Silly me.

Richard, at least, is consistent.

They're not exactly the same, but they're not exactly the opposite either. I'd have thought the ambiguity would appeal to you?! And Romney is a fellow-Goblian, after all!

In any event, nothing is more important in the short term than ejecting The Filth from the White House, even if that means voting for Milksop Mitt. Certainly, a vote for some Saddamite masquerading as a libertarian is just another vote for Obamarx.

I did indeed. Partly to provoke the optimists into giving me hope. I'm delighted to be outnumbered, but I fear it's too late. The land of the free has morphed irretrievably into Airhead America. My hope now is that The Filth will be impeached after the election because of his serial lying over Benghazigate, and the odious treachery on his part that he's been lying about. But the mere removal of The Filth won't save America. The fact that the media have conspired to let him off the hook about Benghazigate (and everything else, including the catastrophic economy) is one sign among many of America's terminal degeneracy. Another is the disgusting KASSlessness and anaemic smallness of Romney's campaign. It became blandified pretty much as soon as he won the nomination. Pathetic. Oh, and there's that pesky philosophy business as well.

Did you pick Obama?